Jon Wiedeman                                                                                                                        10/02/2025 

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Daily ZSX5: 

November beans closed the day higher for the second day in a row following a tweet yesterday from president trump that he would meet with the Chinese leader in a month and Soybeans would be the subject of conversation.  With that being said looking at the daily charts for November beans we have resistance at the 50day moving average of 1024 ½ followed by 1027 ¾ (200 day) and lastly 1029 ½ which is the 100day moving average. For support I am using yesterdays low of 993 ¾ then 981 ¼. (see chart below).

Weekly ZSX5:

Looking at the weekly charts for November beans we have resistance at the 14 day which is 1027 and the 50 day at 1028 ¼.  For support on the weekly charts, we have 984 ½ followed by 981 ¼. (see chart below).

Fundamentals:

With the President tweeting that the subject of conversation with the Chinese leader will be primarily soybeans sparked the beans market to rally sharply off yesterday’s low of 993 ¾. We still are waiting on the details of the farm aid package but what we do know is the money is coming from the tariffs.  With the government shut down such reports as exports, commitment of traders and the monthly USDA supply and demand reports will be delayed.  StoneX has estimated their bean yields from their customer survey up 0.7 bpa to 53.9 bpa this month.

Trade Ideas: 

Long the 1050-1100 call spread in November beans for 10 cents.  Cover the short 11 calls for ½ cent or better.

Daily ZCZ5:

December corn also closed the day higher following the bean complex and bumping up against resistance which is coming in at 422 ¼ which is the 21 day and the 100-day coming in at 424 ¼. Support of December corn is at 414 ½ which is the 50day moving average. (see chart below).

Weekly ZCZ5:

Looking at the weekly charts for December corn we have resistance at last week’s high of 428 ¼ and followed by the 50day at 440. For support I am using 403 ½. (see chart below).

Fundamentals: 

Just like soybeans corn found a bid after hearing about the US and China meeting in a month with the potential of some demand coming into the market.  Without getting the updated export numbers we aren’t able to see the recent demand which has been pretty solid for the corn market as of late.  StoneX came out with the customer yield estimates which was down 1 bpa from their September estimate and now is using a yield of 185.9 bpa. It appears that the 6-10 forecast has appeared to be wetter for most of the Midwest so we will see how the effects harvest.  

Trade Ideas:

Long the December 410-450 call spread for 8½ cents. Place an order to buy back the short 450 calls for ½ cent.

Daily ZWZ5:

December wheat also closed the day higher after making a new contract low of 502 yesterday but still holding the psychological $5 level.  Resistance in December wheat is coming in at 520 ¼ which is both the 14 day and 21 day moving average.  For support on the daily charts, I am using yesterday’s low of 502 then followed by $5. (see chart below).

Weekly ZWZ5:

Looking at the weekly charts for December wheat we have support just like the daily charts at 502 and then psychological $5 level.  For resistance we have last week’s high of 527 ¾ then the 14-day moving average of 537 ¾. (see chart below).

Fundamentals:

Wheat made a new contract low yesterday but got some support from the corn and bean market rallying. As we found out from the recent grain stocks report there is an abundance of global wheat laying around and funds are short for a reason given those global numbers.

Trade Ideas:

Long the 530 – 570 Dec call spread for 9 cents.  Place an order to cover the short 570 calls for ½ cent.

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Jon Wiedeman

Pure Hedge Division

Direct: 1 312 957 8108

jwiedeman@walshtrading.com

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