No NFP, Dollar Set For Further Decline

US dollar background by Iluhanos via iStock

It should be an important NFP day,  but since data collection activities for BLS surveys stopped, indicating no NFP and even that other reports indeed could be delayed. No one knows how long the shutdown will last. Its not only NFP, other data can be delayed too.. but whats most important is that economic data next month can be bad due to the pause on paper work, should have on impact on housing starts, gdp... Not to mention the opportunity for layoffs as Trump mentioned (  temporary suspension or permanent termination). So this puts Dollar into a bit difficult position, certainly not a bullish one. In fact, looking at the wave structure, it appears we have a three wave rise, followed by broken channel and also an impulse lower, that looks like a wave one followed by a wave two rally. This makes me think weakness is going to resume in sessions ahead, when other XXX/USD pairs can rise further. 

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Grega

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