If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list  - SIgn Up Now 

For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays, and my next webinar will be Tuesday, October 07, 2025, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.

Sign Up Now

December Lean Hogs opened unchanged and then traded down to the low of the day at 90.275 within the first half hour of the day. Price turned higher and then rallied to the high at 87.80 by early afternoon. It dipped into the close to settle near the high at 87.275. The early breakdown tested the rising 50-DMA now at 86.00 on the December contract chart and was above the Thursday low at 85.575 and the price action higher took price past resistance at 87.10 forming an Outside candlestick as the Monday range was wider than the Friday range. It also formed a Doji which indicates indecision as the price action took price below the open and above it before settling a tick below the open. Traders are becoming wary of the production in the hogs as we are finally seeing the seasonal increase in slaughter numbers as weights are climbing. Hogs broke the 2,600,000-barrier last week for the first time since January. With weights higher than last year production should jump and with a weakening cutout already in place, put more pressure on the cutout. The larger numbers we have seen recently has also put pressure on the cash market as it is also breaking down. We haven’t seen last week’s exports and might not see this week’s report as the government shutdown is limiting the number of reports the USDA is putting out. So, it will be difficult to see demand results, so we will have to pay attention to how the cutout fares to guess what demand is doing. If cutouts reverse and go higher, we are likely seeing continued strong demand for pork. If cutouts work lower, it could mean demand is faltering and cash prices could continue to break down and we could see the index break below 100.00. This could put more pressure on the futures market. This time of year, usually leads to a decline in the cutout and we are seeing this so far with the index finally breaking below 110.00. Is it a one off or could more pressure be placed on the cutout as the seasonal production hike continues to take hold. We’ll see!... If price can hold settlement, we could see a test of resistance at 88.325 and the declining 8 and 13-DMAs now at 88.35 and 88.425 respectively. A breakout above here could see price move towards resistance at 90.40. A failure from 87.10 could see price test support at the rising 50-DMA on the December chart. Support then comes in at 85.325. 

The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 109.27 as of 10/03/2025. 

The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 102.84 as of 10/02/2025.

Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 491,000, which is above last week’s 490,000 and last year’s 472,255.

**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

888.391.7894

Fax: 312.256.0109

bdicostanzo@walshtrading.com

www.walshtrading.com

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.​
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.​

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall not be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.